The 2024 U.S. Presidential election has become one of the hottest topics not just in political debates but also in the growing world of online prediction markets. Among these, Polymarket has emerged as a standout platform—something like a stock exchange for current events, only instead of trading shares of companies, users trade on the likelihood of future outcomes. From Federal Reserve decisions to celebrity breakups to the next James Bond actor, Polymarket transforms speculation into a real-money market. But lately, its role in the presidential race has drawn widespread attention, controversy, and even participation from political figures themselves.
How Polymarket Works
Polymarket allows users to place bets with a cryptocurrency called USDC, a “stablecoin” pegged to the U.S. dollar. Every event is posed as a clear question—for instance, “Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?”—and users can buy shares representing either outcome. The prices in this peer-to-peer market represent probabilities: if Donald Trump’s shares trade at 64 cents, the market suggests a 64% chance of victory. A winning bet pays out one dollar per share, so those who bought at 64 cents gain 36 cents profit for every share if Trump ultimately wins.
Trump’s Surge on Polymarket
In early October, Polymarket reflected a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, each around 50%. But in recent weeks, Trump’s odds have surged to 64%, well above other prediction platforms like Kalshi (60%) and PredictIt (58%). Part of this jump was fueled by massive betting from a single account named Fredi9999, which reportedly invested tens of millions of dollars on the Trump side. By August and September, related accounts had added up to more than $43 million in pro-Trump wagers, lifting his market value higher.
Is It Prediction or Manipulation?
That surge, however, raises a key question: are Polymarket odds a genuine reflection of public expectations, or are they being influenced by a few wealthy participants with political motives? Since Polymarket has only about 150,000 active accounts—mostly male, international, and crypto-savvy—it does not necessarily represent the U.S. electorate. In fact, Reuters reported that the pro-Trump “whale” bettors were not even American citizens.
The Challenges of Prediction Markets
espite Coplan’s conviction, Polymarket faces serious limits. The platform is technically banned in the U.S. after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ruled it was operating as an unlicensed derivatives market. Though the company paid a $1.4 million fine and restricted U.S. residents, many Americans still log on through VPNs. Meanwhile, its reliance on crypto wallets means its user base skews niche. These hurdles call into question whether Polymarket’s outcomes really capture broad political sentiment—or just reflect the biases of its specialized crowd.
